opportunity-china.co.uk
December 2014 15
F
or years, the government inChina has been aware
that its population is ageing rapidly and has accepted
the stark fact that the proportion of older peoplewill
inexorably increase in the future.
Thechallengeof addressinganageing society,
however, convergeswith thecountry’s othermajor challenge:
accommodating thehundreds ofmillions of peoplemoving from
rural tourbanareas in searchof theopportunities that China’s
development affords.
Thecountry’s one-childpolicy, whichwas established
in the1970’s as ameans toboost development andcurb
overpopulation, brought about a sharpdecline in thenation’s
birthrate. Thepolicyhas sincebeen relaxed, butmany experts
argue that China’s economicdevelopment will nowkeep the
country’sbirthrate lowwithorwithout aone-childpolicy.When
thosewhowereborn into large families get old, therewill be fewer
youngpeople to support them. Expertshavepredicted that, by
2050, 34percent of theChinesepopulationwill beover theage
of 60. Theproblemwill nodoubt becomemoreapparent in rural
Chinaas thecountry continues topursue itsurbanisationdrive.
Massmigration from farms tocitieshasbeendrivenby
economicdevelopment, furtheredby industrialisation in large
coastal cities alongeasternand southernChina. Theurbanisation
ratewas around16percent in1978, surpassed50percent in
2011, and is expected to reach60percent by2018.
Togainmore insight intoChina’s futuredemographic trends,
whileexploringhowanageingpopulationandurbanisationwill
affect China’s future, OpportunityChinapresents the views of
twoexperts, coveringboth theeconomicperspectiveand the
environmental perspective.
The Economic Perspective provided by Zhao Yaohui,
professor of economics at Peking University and
Principal Investigator of The Chinese Health and
Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS).
CHARLS, anational survey of peopleaged45andover
conductedby theChinaCentre for EconomicResearchat Peking
University, found that, “if weuse (theageof) 50as the threshold
definition for theelderlypopulation, thehealth situation isquite
worrisome,” according toZhao.
“Thepercentageof people suffering fromdifficulties indaily
activities is about 38percent; thepercentageof peopleneeding
help indaily activities is24percent. A lot of them suffer frompain;
39percent of womengettingolder suffer frompain (compared
to) 27percent ofmen. Sowe found that there is a largegender
difference; women tend tohaveworsehealth thanmen.”
Theelderly require increased levels of careandpalliative
services in their oldageand thefindings fromTheChinaHealth
andRetirement Longitudinal Studypaint ableakpicture for the
futureas agreater number of elderlyChinesewill requiremore
attention, whichultimately costsmoney. The study alsomeasured
thecognitiveandmental healthof itsparticipants, and thefindings revealed that a
largenumber of peopleaged60andover suffer fromelevateddepressive symptoms,
with statistics indicating that thisphenomenon ismuchworseamongwomen than
amongmen.
According toZhao, toaddress issues related topainandmobility or cognitive
andmental issues over the long term, theauthoritiesmust first becertainwhat
elementswithinaperson’s lifecause theproblems. “Health isdeterminedby a lot
of factors includingchildhood factors. A lot of Chinesepeoplearenot poor nowdue
to the rapideconomicgrowthof thepast 30 years. But when (today’s elderly)were
children, their economic situationwas verybad so thismight havecontributed to the
poor health situationnow.”
Zhaoadds, “Thecurrent social economic situationmay alsohavean impact
onhealth status. Thefirst thing (that authorities shoulddo) is analyseor determine
thehealth situation. If weknow, for example, that childhoodconditions are very
important, then thepolicy recommendationswouldbe improvingchildnutritionor
maybepregnant women’snutrition status. But if theadult situationmattersmore,
thenwecando things right away; so the implications aredifferent according towhat
researchers find.”
Zhaobelieves that economicgrowth isnot necessarilyharmedby anageing
populationbecause theparameters for theworkingagecanbe shifted, extending
theageof retirement. “If theolder peoplearehealthy then it is technicallypossible
for them tocontinue tocontribute to the society.Wedefinea labour forceby the
traditional standardof (60 years of age), but that standardwas set a long timeago
when the lifeexpectancywaspretty low.Now that lifeexpectancyhas extended to
the late70s andwill (extend) further into the80s, then thedefinitionof labourmay
alsobeextended.”
Demographic issueswill inmanywaysdefine thecountry’s
future.Tackling issues related toanageingpopulationwhilst
working toachievenationwideurbanisation representsa
hugechallenge forChina’sauthorities..
economicgrowth
isnot necessarily
harmedbyanageing
populationbecause
theparameters for
theworkingage
canbe shifted